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Evolving Political Landscape In Bangladesh

Bangladesh remains a hotbed of political intrigue.

It all kicked off back in July and August 2024 with massive student protests against government job quotas, which snowballed into widespread unrest.

This forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who had held power since 2009, to resign and flee to India.

Her Awami League government was accused of everything from election rigging to stifling dissent, but it also oversaw impressive economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty.

Fast forward to today, December 25, 2025, and the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus is still in charge.

Yunus, known for his microfinance work, promised quick reforms and elections.

However, delays have fueled suspicions.

Tarique Rahman, acting chairman of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), returned from 17 years in exile in London.

He is now seen as a top contender for prime minister in the upcoming polls, which are slated for early 2026.

This return marks a dramatic shift, as the BNP hopes to capitalize on public frustration with the interim setup.

However, not everyone’s on board.

The interim government has confirmed that Hasina’s Awami League is banned from contesting, citing its role in past violence and corruption.

Over 7.17 lakh expatriate voters have registered for what will be the 13th national election, with postal ballots already sent out.

Amid this, reports of targeted killings, like the recent shooting of National Citizen Party leader Motaleb Sikdar and the murder of radical figure Sharif Osman Hadi, have raised alarms about pre-election sabotage.

Unpacking The ‘Deep State’ Conspiracy Theories

The term “deep state” pops up a lot in discussions about Bangladesh’s turmoil.

It refers to shadowy networks, often tied to intelligence agencies or foreign powers, that allegedly manipulate events from behind the scenes.

In this case, fingers point squarely at the United States.

Hasina herself has claimed the US orchestrated her ouster because she refused to cede control of Saint Martin’s Island in the Bay of Bengal, which could serve as a strategic military base.

Sources suggest US pressure built up over the years, with sanctions on Bangladeshi officials for human rights abuses and criticisms of the 2024 elections, which the opposition boycotted amid fraud allegations.

Some analysts argue this was part of a broader strategy to counter China’s growing investments in Bangladesh, like ports and infrastructure projects.

Others see it as payback for Hasina’s close ties with India, a key US ally in the region but sometimes at odds with Washington’s South Asia playbook.

On social media and in opinion pieces, there is chatter about how protests were amplified by international NGOs and funding, possibly linked to US interests.

Recent X posts (formerly Twitter) echo this, with users accusing the “deep state” of propping up Yunus as a puppet to delay elections and stoke anti-India sentiment.

For instance, killings are being framed as false flags to blame India and justify postponing polls.

However, is there hard evidence?

Much of it stems from Hasina’s statements and patterns seen in other countries like Pakistan or Ukraine, where regime changes aligned with US goals.

Critics counter that these are just conspiracy theories, and the real issues are homegrown: corruption, inequality, and a desire for fresh leadership.

To add balance, it is worth noting that the US has publicly called for “free and fair” elections in Bangladesh, emphasizing democracy.

However, the ban on the Awami League, representing a huge voter base, raises questions about inclusivity.

If elections go ahead without them, it could lead to boycotts or more unrest, playing into the hands of those who want prolonged instability.

A Timeline Of Key Milestones

Bangladesh’s path to independence and democracy has been rocky, marked by coups, floods, and economic miracles.

Here is an updated table highlighting pivotal moments leading to the current election drama:

Year	Key	Impact
1971	Independence from Pakistan	Founded modern Bangladesh under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Hasina’s father; set the stage for Awami League dominance
2006	Muhammad Yunus wins Nobel Peace Prize	Elevated Yunus as a global icon for poverty alleviation, paving his way to interim leadership
2009-2024	Sheikh Hasina’s extended rule	Economic surge (GDP growth over 6% annually), but marred by opposition crackdowns and disputed elections
Jan 2024	Controversial general election	Awami League landslide victory; opposition BNP boycotts, alleging rigging
Aug 2024	Protests oust Hasina	Interim government forms under Yunus; Hasina flees to India, accuses US of interference.
Dec 2025	Tarique Rahman returns from exile	Boosts BNP’s campaign; Awami League banned from polls; voter registration ramps up for 2026 elections
Ongoing	Targeted killings and minority attacks	Heightens fears of election sabotage; anti-India narratives gain traction amid instability

This chronology shows how external pressures and internal divisions keep intersecting, making stable governance a challenge.

Motives Behind Delaying Or Influencing Elections

Why might a “deep state” oppose timely, inclusive elections? One theory is strategic control.

Bangladesh sits at a geopolitical crossroads, with India to the west, Myanmar to the east, and the Bay of Bengal offering vital shipping routes.

A pro-India government under Hasina clashed with US desires for more influence, especially to check China’s Belt and Road initiatives.

Delays allow the interim regime to consolidate power, reform institutions, and sideline rivals.

However, they have also sparked chaos: Attacks on Hindus (about 8% of the population) have surged, with temples vandalized and communities fleeing.

Economic woes persist, too; remittances and garment exports, Bangladesh’s lifelines, are dipping amid uncertainty.

Unemployment, a spark for the 2024 protests, remains high at over 5%, hitting youth hardest.

From India’s perspective, this instability threatens border security and trade (worth $10 billion annually).

If elections favor anti-India forces like the BNP or Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, it could shift alliances toward Pakistan or China.

Pro-deep state narratives suggest killings are engineered to create anti-India hysteria, postponing polls indefinitely.

However, with Rahman’s return and voter prep underway, elections seem imminent, unless more violence derails them.

On the flip side, supporters of the interim government argue that delays are needed for reforms, like cleaning up the judiciary and police.

Yunus has pledged transparency, but critics say it is a facade for entrenching unelected rule.

The Broader Human And Regional Stakes

This is not just about power plays; real lives are at stake.

Families displaced by violence, businesses shuttered by protests, and a youth bulge desperate for jobs all hinge on stable leadership.

Regionally, a turbulent Bangladesh could export instability, affecting refugee flows to India or ethnic tensions in Myanmar.

Globally, it tests democracy’s resilience.

Can a nation rebound from upheaval without foreign meddling? The US’s role, whether real or perceived, highlights how superpowers shape smaller nations’ fates.

An Intriguing Trivia Tidbit

Here is something fascinating: Tarique Rahman, now back in the fray, is not just a politician; he is the son of former President Ziaur Rahman, who founded the BNP in 1978. Ziaur was assassinated in 1981, adding a layer of family legacy and revenge politics to Bangladesh’s already dramatic scene.