U.S. producers plan to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2026, a 3% decrease from 2025 levels, while soybean acreage is projected to rise 4% to 84.7 million acres, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Prospective Plantings report released Tuesday.
All-wheat planted area is expected to fall 3% to 43.8 million acres, the lowest level on record since 1919, as high input costs and tighter profit margins drive major crop-allocation shifts ahead of the spring planting season.
The report, based on surveys conducted in early March, shows corn acreage declining in 37 states, with the largest drops in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
Soybean intentions increased notably in the same Corn Belt states, reflecting farmers’ efforts to improve margins amid elevated fertilizer and fuel prices.
Cotton acreage, by contrast, is projected to expand 4% to 9.64 million acres.
“Farmers are clearly responding to the economics on the ground,” said one Midwest agronomist who reviewed the data.
“With nitrogen fertilizer costs up sharply since the Strait of Hormuz disruptions began in late February, many operations are pivoting to crops that require less intensive nutrient applications.”
The fertilizer price surge, driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran and resulting shipping constraints through the Persian Gulf, has added significant pressure.
Urea prices have climbed by more than 28% in recent weeks, and analysts note that fertilizer can account for one-third to one-half of variable costs for major row crops such as corn and wheat.
The timing coincides with peak spring purchasing decisions, amplifying the impact on 2026 planting intentions.
Total projected planted acres for corn, soybeans, and wheat combined are expected to reach 223.8 million in 2026/27, down from 225.3 million the previous year.
Market reaction was measured: soybean futures gained modestly on the lighter-than-expected acreage figure, while wheat prices found some support from the record-low planting intentions.
Corn prices remained relatively stable despite the reduction, as the figure still came in above many pre-report analyst estimates.
A notable caveat in the report is the record-low farmer response rate of just 37.6% for the March survey, the lowest participation ever recorded for this release.
USDA officials acknowledged the decline and said they are working to rebuild trust with producers to ensure the reliability of future data.
The Prospective Plantings report provides the first official look at 2026 acreage intentions but remains subject to change.
Farmers will continue to monitor fertilizer markets, weather forecasts, and evolving price signals before finalizing planting decisions.
The USDA’s June Acreage report will offer a more definitive update.
The full report is available on the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service website.
About Author
